Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Aleksa Camur vs Justin Ledet
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Aleksa Camur
Justin Ledet
58%
42%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Camur: 80 sig / 1 TD ·
Ledet: 44 sig / 0 TD
Aleksa Camur
Justin Ledet
36
Sig strikes landed
36
72
Sig strikes attempted
77
47
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Aleksa Camur
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
L2
Justin Ledet
"El Blanco"
9-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—