Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Nasrat Haqparast
53%
47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
30-15
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dober: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Haqparast: 7 sig / 0 TD
Drew Dober
Nasrat Haqparast
46
Sig strikes landed
52
115
Sig strikes attempted
113
57
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—