Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Maurice Greene
98%
2%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
80"
43
Age
Δ 9y
34
60-18-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
9-8
L2
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Oleinik: 7 sig / 3 TD ·
Greene: 13 sig / 0 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Maurice Greene
20
Sig strikes landed
24
36
Sig strikes attempted
52
37
Total strikes landed
30
1.1
Takedowns landed
-0.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
-0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
11%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
60-18-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
Blue corner
L1
Maurice Greene
"The Crochet Boss"
9-8
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—