Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Askar Askarov
35%
65%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
22-15-1
Career record
Δ 24 pp
14-1-2
L1
Current streak
D1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Askarov: 73 sig / 0 TD
Tim Elliott
Askar Askarov
40
Sig strikes landed
39
82
Sig strikes attempted
87
57
Total strikes landed
55
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
131s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 4-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
Blue corner
D1
Askar Askarov
"Bullet"
14-1-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—