Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Diego Ferreira
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
24-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W5
17
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pettis: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferreira: 25 sig / 3 TD
Anthony Pettis
Diego Ferreira
53
Sig strikes landed
57
113
Sig strikes attempted
128
59
Total strikes landed
66
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W5
Diego Ferreira
20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—