Prelims1
Lightweight
Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
·Chartway Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Luis Pena
Steve Garcia
44%
56%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pena: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 21 sig / 1 TD
Luis Pena
Steve Garcia
37
Sig strikes landed
42
90
Sig strikes attempted
84
56
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
190s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Luis Pena
"Violent Bob Ross"
9-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28