Back to UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo ·Chartway Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Serghei Spivac
52% 48%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
27-12
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-6
L2
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tybura: 43 sig / 2 TD · Spivac: 26 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Serghei Spivac
23
Sig strikes landed
26
42
Sig strikes attempted
56
49
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
185s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
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W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
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L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
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Blue corner
W1

Serghei Spivac

"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
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L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
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