Prelims1
Middleweight
Brendan Allen vs Tom Breese
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
·Chartway Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Allen
Tom Breese
83%
17%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
27-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Allen: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Breese: 4 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Allen
Tom Breese
28
Sig strikes landed
19
54
Sig strikes attempted
44
42
Total strikes landed
35
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
159s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
W1
Tom Breese
13-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—