Back to UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Prelims1 Featherweight

Aalon Cruz vs Spike Carlyle

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo ·Chartway Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Aalon Cruz
Spike Carlyle
53% 47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 7"
71"
30
Age
Δ 4y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cruz: 2 sig / 0 TD · Carlyle: 20 sig / 0 TD
Aalon Cruz
Spike Carlyle
36
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
68
48
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
175s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
37%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Aalon Cruz

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
Blue corner

Spike Carlyle

"Alpha Ginger"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27