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Brok Weaver vs Kazula Vargas

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz ·Santa Ana Star Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brok Weaver
Kazula Vargas
75% 25%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
DQ · Round 1
Weaver: 5 sig / 0 TD · Vargas: 15 sig / 1 TD
Brok Weaver
Kazula Vargas
36
Sig strikes landed
24
64
Sig strikes attempted
50
53
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Brok Weaver

"Chata Tuska"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
L1

Kazula Vargas

12-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
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