Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Domingo Pilarte
Journey Newson
62%
38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
8-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Pilarte: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Newson: 6 sig / 0 TD
Domingo Pilarte
Journey Newson
36
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
67
58
Total strikes landed
86
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Domingo Pilarte
"Son of Fire"
8-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Journey Newson
10-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—