Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Miles Johns
Mario Bautista
47%
53%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
16-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johns: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Bautista: 18 sig / 0 TD
Miles Johns
Mario Bautista
44
Sig strikes landed
44
93
Sig strikes attempted
88
57
Total strikes landed
60
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
16-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—