Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Trevin Giles
James Krause
42%
58%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
16-8
Career record
Δ 10 pp
29-9
L2
Current streak
W6
4
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Giles: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Krause: 44 sig / 1 TD
Trevin Giles
James Krause
41
Sig strikes landed
61
93
Sig strikes attempted
115
53
Total strikes landed
82
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
85s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Trevin Giles
16-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
W6
James Krause
"The"
29-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—