Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Ilir Latifi
80%
20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
35
Age
Δ 2y
38
30-13
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-10
W1
Current streak
L2
18
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lewis: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Latifi: 5 sig / 3 TD
Derrick Lewis
Ilir Latifi
30
Sig strikes landed
28
50
Sig strikes attempted
51
44
Total strikes landed
38
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
48s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
Blue corner
L2
Ilir Latifi
"The Sledgehammer"
17-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—