Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lauren Murphy
Andrea Lee
64%
36%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 6y
31
17-7
Career record
Δ 19 pp
13-12
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Murphy: 80 sig / 2 TD ·
Lee: 104 sig / 0 TD
Lauren Murphy
Andrea Lee
58
Sig strikes landed
65
149
Sig strikes attempted
144
90
Total strikes landed
85
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
258s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
17-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
Blue corner
L1
Andrea Lee
"KGB"
13-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—