Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Juan Adams
Justin Tafa
63%
37%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
5-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
7-6
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Adams: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Tafa: 10 sig / 0 TD
Juan Adams
Justin Tafa
33
Sig strikes landed
29
63
Sig strikes attempted
56
49
Total strikes landed
48
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Juan Adams
"The Kraken"
5-4
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
Blue corner
L1
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
7-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—