Main
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Yan Xiaonan
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
·Spark Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Yan Xiaonan
30%
70%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
34
Age
Δ 4y
31
16-11
Career record
Δ 21 pp
20-5
L3
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Xiaonan: 93 sig / 5 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Yan Xiaonan
72
Sig strikes landed
105
177
Sig strikes attempted
229
88
Total strikes landed
120
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
88%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W4
Yan Xiaonan
20-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—