Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brad Riddell
Magomed Mustafaev
59%
41%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
28
Age
Δ 3y
32
11-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
15-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Riddell: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Mustafaev: 28 sig / 8 TD
Brad Riddell
Magomed Mustafaev
26
Sig strikes landed
46
44
Sig strikes attempted
86
42
Total strikes landed
60
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Riddell
"Quake"
11-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W1
Magomed Mustafaev
"The Sniper"
15-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—