Prelims1
Featherweight
Kevin Aguilar vs Zubaira Tukhugov
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
·Spark Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kevin Aguilar
Zubaira Tukhugov
53%
47%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
17-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-6-2
L1
Current streak
D1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aguilar: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Tukhugov: 28 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Aguilar
Zubaira Tukhugov
44
Sig strikes landed
48
132
Sig strikes attempted
131
66
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kevin Aguilar
"Angel of Death"
17-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
Blue corner
D1
Zubaira Tukhugov
"Warrior"
20-6-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 5
D
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—