Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos
Main Welterweight

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Michael Chiesa

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos ·PNC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Michael Chiesa
61% 39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
32-18
Career record
Δ 11 pp
21-7
L1
Current streak
W2
25
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dos Anjos: 14 sig / 0 TD · Chiesa: 9 sig / 6 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Michael Chiesa
34
Sig strikes landed
32
59
Sig strikes attempted
84
62
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
176s
Control time
288s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Rafael Dos Anjos

32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 25 fights · 17-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
W2

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—