Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jordan Espinosa
Alex Perez
26%
74%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
15-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
27-10
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Espinosa: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Perez: 2 sig / 1 TD
Jordan Espinosa
Alex Perez
28
Sig strikes landed
40
65
Sig strikes attempted
86
38
Total strikes landed
60
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
48s
Control time
260s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
15-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Perez
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—