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Main Heavyweight

Curtis Blaydes vs Junior Dos Santos

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos ·PNC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Junior Dos Santos
74% 26%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
20-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
21-10
W2
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
17

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Blaydes: 28 sig / 0 TD · Dos Santos: 7 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Junior Dos Santos
50
Sig strikes landed
45
114
Sig strikes attempted
85
72
Total strikes landed
67
1.6
Takedowns landed
-0.1
5.3
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
12s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Curtis Blaydes

"Razor"
20-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
L1

Junior Dos Santos

"Cigano"
21-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—