Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arnold Allen
Nik Lentz
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 9y
35
22-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
30-13-2
W6
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Allen: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Lentz: 49 sig / 0 TD
Arnold Allen
Nik Lentz
48
Sig strikes landed
41
106
Sig strikes attempted
93
66
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
141s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
22 fights · 13-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—