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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Raoni Barcelos vs Said Nurmagomedov

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie ·Sajik Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Raoni Barcelos
Said Nurmagomedov
64% 36%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
23-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-5
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barcelos: 42 sig / 2 TD · Nurmagomedov: 55 sig / 0 TD
Raoni Barcelos
Said Nurmagomedov
50
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
112
69
Total strikes landed
58
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Raoni Barcelos

23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2

Said Nurmagomedov

19-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—