Prelims1
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Matt Schnell
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
·Sajik Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Matt Schnell
89%
11%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
30-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-10
L1
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pantoja: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Schnell: 20 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Matt Schnell
41
Sig strikes landed
33
81
Sig strikes attempted
95
55
Total strikes landed
41
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
157s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W4
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—