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Main Middleweight

Antonio Arroyo vs Andre Muniz

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Antonio Arroyo
Andre Muniz
27% 73%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arroyo: 29 sig / 1 TD · Muniz: 22 sig / 3 TD
Antonio Arroyo
Andre Muniz
31
Sig strikes landed
39
69
Sig strikes attempted
78
45
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Antonio Arroyo

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Andre Muniz

"Sergipano"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30