Main
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Jared Gordon
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Jared Gordon
86%
14%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
38-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-9
W5
Current streak
W1
24
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Oliveira: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Gordon: 7 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Jared Gordon
36
Sig strikes landed
29
68
Sig strikes attempted
61
46
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
24 fights · 15-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—