Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs Paul Craig
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Paul Craig
67%
33%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rua: 25 sig / 1 TD ·
Craig: 51 sig / 1 TD
Mauricio Rua
Paul Craig
38
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
61
54
Total strikes landed
39
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
18-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—