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Prelims1 Welterweight

Warlley Alves vs Randy Brown

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Randy Brown
42% 58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
16-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-8
W1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Alves: 3 sig / 3 TD · Brown: 16 sig / 1 TD
Warlley Alves
Randy Brown
35
Sig strikes landed
44
72
Sig strikes attempted
86
50
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Warlley Alves

16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
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W UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
Blue corner
W1

Randy Brown

"Rudeboy"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—