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Jan Blachowicz vs Jacare Souza

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Jacare Souza
71% 29%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
37
Age
Δ 3y
40
30-11-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
26-11
W1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Blachowicz: 71 sig / 0 TD · Souza: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Jacare Souza
51
Sig strikes landed
33
96
Sig strikes attempted
69
66
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
101s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jan Blachowicz

30-11-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
L1

Jacare Souza

26-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—