Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Ariane da Silva vs Isabela de Padua
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ariane da Silva
Isabela de Padua
67%
33%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
da Silva: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
de Padua: 15 sig / 2 TD
Ariane da Silva
Isabela de Padua
54
Sig strikes landed
51
136
Sig strikes attempted
124
87
Total strikes landed
71
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
172s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ariane da Silva
"Queen of Violence"
17-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
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Blue corner
Isabela de Padua
"Belinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28