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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Vanessa Melo vs Tracy Cortez

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Vanessa Melo
Tracy Cortez
33% 67%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Melo: 40 sig / 0 TD · Cortez: 79 sig / 2 TD
Vanessa Melo
Tracy Cortez
49
Sig strikes landed
61
124
Sig strikes attempted
138
57
Total strikes landed
88
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Vanessa Melo

11-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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Blue corner

Tracy Cortez

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26