Prelims1
Welterweight
Sergio Moraes vs James Krause
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
James Krause
22%
78%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 4y
34
14-7-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
29-9
L2
Current streak
W5
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Moraes: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Krause: 102 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
James Krause
31
Sig strikes landed
56
78
Sig strikes attempted
104
44
Total strikes landed
79
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
106s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
Blue corner
W5
James Krause
"The"
29-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—