Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Mike Perry
65%
35%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
17-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-9
W4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Neal: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Perry: 5 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Mike Perry
57
Sig strikes landed
51
126
Sig strikes attempted
111
59
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
70s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
17-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
14-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—