Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Petr Yan
Urijah Faber
58%
42%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
27
Age
Δ 14y
41
21-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
36-11
W5
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Yan: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Faber: 18 sig / 0 TD
Petr Yan
Urijah Faber
61
Sig strikes landed
51
131
Sig strikes attempted
131
73
Total strikes landed
60
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.3
1.10
Knockdowns
0.10
62s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
Blue corner
W2
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
36-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—