Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Ketlen Vieira vs Irene Aldana
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ketlen Vieira
Irene Aldana
72%
28%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
28
Age
Δ 3y
32
17-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-8
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vieira: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Aldana: 26 sig / 0 TD
Ketlen Vieira
Irene Aldana
58
Sig strikes landed
46
146
Sig strikes attempted
121
90
Total strikes landed
56
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
8.0
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
205s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Ketlen Vieira
"Fenomeno"
17-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W1
Irene Aldana
16-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—