Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marlon Moraes
Jose Aldo
38%
62%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
33
23-11-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
32-11
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moraes: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Aldo: 58 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Moraes
Jose Aldo
46
Sig strikes landed
51
109
Sig strikes attempted
123
51
Total strikes landed
61
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
63s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—