Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Kai Kara-France
53%
47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
23-10-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
26-12
D1
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moreno: 91 sig / 0 TD ·
Kara-France: 82 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Moreno
Kai Kara-France
48
Sig strikes landed
50
148
Sig strikes attempted
129
68
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-10-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
Blue corner
W3
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—