🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Alexander Volkanovski
46%
54%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
28-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
29-4
W1
Current streak
W7
21
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 134 sig / 0 TD ·
Volkanovski: 157 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Alexander Volkanovski
126
Sig strikes landed
116
295
Sig strikes attempted
243
132
Total strikes landed
129
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.4
Takedowns attempted
9.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
9s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
21 fights · 17-4
Last 5
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
Blue corner
W7
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—