🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Colby Covington
73%
27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
22-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-5
W8
Current streak
W7
10
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Usman: 175 sig / 0 TD ·
Covington: 143 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Colby Covington
102
Sig strikes landed
71
197
Sig strikes attempted
243
134
Total strikes landed
108
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
6.7
1.00
Knockdowns
0.00
134s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 10-0
Last 5
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
Blue corner
W7
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—