Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Ben Saunders
51%
49%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
39
Age
Δ 2y
37
27-19
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-14-2
W1
Current streak
L3
19
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Brown: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
Saunders: 12 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Ben Saunders
38
Sig strikes landed
41
77
Sig strikes attempted
72
46
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
19 fights · 10-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
L3
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
22-14-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 5-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—