Back to UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar
Prelims1 Welterweight

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David Zawada

UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar ·CSKA Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
David Zawada
61% 39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nurmagomedov: 4 sig / 1 TD · Zawada: 2 sig / 0 TD
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
David Zawada
45
Sig strikes landed
48
103
Sig strikes attempted
113
59
Total strikes landed
70
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L2

David Zawada

"Sagat"
17-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
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