Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roman Kopylov
Karl Roberson
78%
22%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Kopylov: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Roberson: 43 sig / 1 TD
Roman Kopylov
Karl Roberson
26
Sig strikes landed
25
51
Sig strikes attempted
55
46
Total strikes landed
38
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Roman Kopylov
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
W1
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
10-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—