Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkov
Greg Hardy
96%
4%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
80"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
40-12
Career record
Δ 19 pp
7-5
L1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Volkov: 86 sig / 0 TD ·
Hardy: 46 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkov
Greg Hardy
49
Sig strikes landed
35
86
Sig strikes attempted
75
80
Total strikes landed
44
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
40-12
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
W2
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
7-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—