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Michael Johnson vs Stevie Ray

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Stevie Ray
38% 62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
33
Age
Δ 4y
30
25-21
Career record
Δ 15 pp
23-10
L1
Current streak
L1
21
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Johnson: 78 sig / 0 TD · Ray: 85 sig / 1 TD
Michael Johnson
Stevie Ray
55
Sig strikes landed
57
126
Sig strikes attempted
125
66
Total strikes landed
62
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
65s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Michael Johnson

"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 21 fights · 11-10
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
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W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
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Blue corner
L1

Stevie Ray

"Braveheart"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—