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Main Welterweight

Demian Maia vs Ben Askren

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Ben Askren
49% 51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
42
Age
Δ 7y
35
29-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
19-3
W2
Current streak
L1
24
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Maia: 69 sig / 0 TD · Askren: 63 sig / 4 TD
Demian Maia
Ben Askren
32
Sig strikes landed
37
62
Sig strikes attempted
122
59
Total strikes landed
66
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
6.2
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
258s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
60%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Demian Maia

29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database 24 fights · 16-8
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Ben Askren

"Funky"
19-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—