Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Prelims1 Welterweight

Thiago Alves vs Tim Means

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik ·Capital One Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Tim Means
35% 65%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
36
Age
Δ 0y
36
23-16
Career record
Δ 4 pp
33-18-1
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
19

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Alves: 13 sig / 0 TD · Means: 23 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Alves
Tim Means
61
Sig strikes landed
69
134
Sig strikes attempted
156
76
Total strikes landed
80
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
82s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Thiago Alves

"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 14 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
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W UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
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L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Tim Means

"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 19 fights · 10-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
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L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—