Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Prelims1 Featherweight

Billy Quarantillo vs Jacob Kilburn

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik ·Capital One Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Billy Quarantillo
Jacob Kilburn
62% 38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Quarantillo: 74 sig / 1 TD · Kilburn: 3 sig / 0 TD
Billy Quarantillo
Jacob Kilburn
38
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
78
55
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
170s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Billy Quarantillo

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Jacob Kilburn

"The Killer"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24