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Main Heavyweight

Stefan Struve vs Ben Rothwell

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik ·Capital One Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Ben Rothwell
56% 44%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
32
Age
Δ 6y
38
34-13
Career record
Δ 0 pp
39-15
W1
Current streak
L3
18
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Struve: 53 sig / 0 TD · Rothwell: 58 sig / 0 TD
Stefan Struve
Ben Rothwell
42
Sig strikes landed
39
85
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
51
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Stefan Struve

"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 18 fights · 10-8
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
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L UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
L3

Ben Rothwell

39-15
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—