Main
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez vs Cynthia Calvillo
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
·Capital One Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Cynthia Calvillo
77%
23%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
33
Age
Δ 0y
32
18-6-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
10-6-1
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Rodriguez: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Calvillo: 78 sig / 3 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Cynthia Calvillo
51
Sig strikes landed
49
127
Sig strikes attempted
126
97
Total strikes landed
74
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
141s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Marina Rodriguez
18-6-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
W2
Cynthia Calvillo
10-6-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—